Putting the Socialist SPD on 30.5% of the vote, the poll says the AFD are on track to get 21% leaving the German Chancellor’s party on 19%.
The poll in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania is being seen as a test of the German Chancellor’s migrant and refugee policies.
A loss could mean Merkel will go into national elections next year in a weaker position.
The national vote is expected in September 2017.
Sunday’s ballot is the first of five state votes due before then. (Euronews)